The Oscars will soon be handed out in Los Angeles, as awards season draws to a close – but with the last five favourites failing to win Best Film, can we pick out the winner this time around?
OddsMonkey has taken a look to see if we can work out who is going to take away the honour they all want…Best Film.
We can reveal that the last five favourites for Best Film have all failed to take home the biggest prize on offer.
The Oscars represents the pinnacle of the big awards in the film industry following on from the Golden Globes, the Directors (DGA) and Producers Guilds (PGA) of America and the BAFTAs.
The general consensus is that there is always a trend, but that really is not the case in the last decade – perhaps with the exception of the PGA – who have managed to match the Oscar winner on eight occasions, almost three times more accurate than the Golden Globes.
How many times have they predicted the Oscar winner in the last decade?
BAFTA – 6
Golden Globe – 3
DGA – 6
PGA – 8
Bookmakers – 5
One unusual feature in 2020 is that going into the Oscars everyone has the same opinion – that 1917 is the best film. The last time his happened was in 2013 when Argo swept the board…
Until recently the Bookmakers and punters alike had a great record of picking the winner – up to 2014 when 12 Years A Slave won, it was almost becoming too easy for the Bookmakers to get it right
However, things have changed in recent times – with the last five winners being non-favourites – with odds-on titles such as La La Land, the Revenant and Roma all beaten.
But can 1917 be the one to change the trend? It seems so…
OddsMonkey spokesman Peter Watton said: “1917 is one of the strongest favourites we have seen in quite a while, and the fact that they have taken every award and are now odds-on is a huge marker thrown down and it will take a very brave person to go against it – it certainly look unbeatable at this stage.”
OddsMonkey has looked back over the last decade to see what happened to the favourite film…
2010 – rewarding films from 2009
In 2010 all the talk was about Avatar, James Cameron’s epic 3D sci-fi and was the biggest grossing film of all time and all looked good as they took the Golden Globe, but then talk turned to Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraqi war drama The Hurt Locker and when that took the BAFTA and the DGA and PGA gongs, by the time Oscar night came around – The Hurt Locker was firm favourite, although only just with Avatar still at Evens, but the trend continued as Bigelow’s creation took the honours.
BAFTA – The Hurt Locker
Golden Globe – Avatar
DGA – The Hurt Locker
PGA – The Hurt Locker
The Bookmakers said – The Hurt Locker 8/11, Avatar Evens, Up In The Air 14/1, Inglorious Basterds 16/1, Up 33/1, The Blind Side 125/1
And the Oscar went to…The Hurt Locker
2011
This was very similar to 2010, when one film was deemed the favourite before being pipped. The Social Network was a highly popular movie all-around throughout 2010 and took the Golden Globe, and was odds-on at that point – but then came the late run from The King’s Speech, and they took all the other prizes, and perhaps the nail in the coffin for Social Network was when the PGA did not even nominate, and by the time Oscars came around, The King’s Speech was odds-on and it delivered.
BAFTA – The King’s Speech
Golden Globe – The Social Network
DGA – The King’s Speech
PGA – The King’s Speech
The Bookmakers said – The King’s Speech 1/6, The Social Network 2/1
And the Oscar went to… The King’s Speech
2012
This was similar to when Slumdog Millionaire won. The Descendants starring George Clooney was popular early on and even won the Golden Globe, but that hype did not last long as the French black and white silent movie The Artist became the buzz movie in Hollywood, and dominated thereafter, and by Oscar night was 1/12 to win, which it did with ease. Going into the Oscars – the Artist is the shortest price for any movie to win in recent years.
BAFTA – The Artist
Golden Globe – The Descendants
DGA – The Artist
PGA – The Artist
The Bookmakers said – The Artist 1/12, The Descendants 10/1, The War Horse 40/1
And the Oscar went to…The Artist
2013
This was a one movie year again with Argo, directed and starring Ben Affleck dominating – despite some other heavy hitters being in contention with the likes of Life of Pi and Lincoln also in contention – but it was the CIA-based historical drama than swept the board.
BAFTA – Argo
Golden Globe – Argo
DGA – Argo
PGA – Argo
The Bookmakers said – Argo 2/7, Lincoln 3/1, Les Miserables 33/1, The Silver Linings Playbook 33/1, Life of Pi 50/1
And the Oscar went to… Argo
2014
This is one of the most fascinating years in recent movie history and is very much looked back on as a vintage year in movie making. As it turned out, the brilliant 12 Years a Slave dominated, but it was very from easy going with sci-fi drama Gravity also considered a genuine contender, whilst there was also American Hustle, Captain Phillips and The Wolf of Wall Street. Indeed the DGA went with Gravity, whilst the PGA did the unprecedented thing of award joint winners in Gravity and 12 Years A Slave. The BAFTA and Golden Globe’s went to 12 Years A Slave and they took the main honours too on Oscar night by which point they were odds-on.
BAFTA – 12 Years A Slave
Golden Globe – 12 Years A Slave
DGA – Gravity
PGA – Gravity & 12 Years A Slave
The Bookmakers said – 12 Years a Slave 1/5, Gravity 4/1, American Hustle 12/1, The Wolf of Wall Street 25/1
And the Oscar went to…12 Years A Slave
2015
This year was another two-horse race. Boyhood and Birdman were by far the two leading lights. Richard Linklater’s Boyhood took the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and many thought it was on course for the Oscar, but Boyhood came from behind to capture the buzz, winning the DGA and PGA honours – but just days before the Oscars – Boyhood was odds-on with Birdman as long as 18/1 but it caused a huge shock by taking the win also beating the fancied The Imitation Game and Grand Budapest Hotel – who both had a buzz pre-Oscar. This still ranks as one of the biggest upsets in recent history.
BAFTA – Boyhood
Golden Globe – Boyhood
DGA – Birdman
PGA – Birdman
The Bookmakers said – Boyhood 2/5, The Imitation Game 7/1, Grand Budapest Hotel 9/1, Birdman 18/1
And the Oscar went to…Birdman
2016
Birdman caused a huge shock 12-months earlier at the Oscars and the Academy members did it again for the 2015 awards with Spotlight taking the honours. There was one movie dominating awards season was Alejandro G. Insrritu’s historial American drama The Revenant starring Leondaro Di Caprio, which claimed the BAFTA, Golden Globe and the DGA – indeed the other movie thought to be in contention was the Big Short – based on the collapse of the American housing market. Spotlight – a true story about child abuse in the Catholic church – was highly acclaimed and amongst the front-runners, but it was still a huge shock when it took the Oscar on the night.
BAFTA – The Revenant
Golden Globe – The Revenant
DGA – The Revenant
PGA – The Big Short
The Bookmakers said – The Revenant 1/2, Spotlight 11/4, The Big Short 6/1
And the Oscar went to…Spotlight
2017
For the third year running, the favourite did not win. Early in awards season and coming-of-age drama Moonlight was well received and took the Golden Globe and then the BAFTA. Highly acclaimed feel good musical La La Land was the name on everyone’s lips, and was 1/10 to win – 90% probability, but no it was Moonlight who claimed the big award.
BAFTA – Moonlight
Golden Globe – Moonlight
DGA – La La Land
PGA – La La Land
The Bookmakers said – La La Land 1/10, Moonlight 4/1, Manchester By The Sea 7/1
And the Oscar went to…Moonlight
2018
The 2017 vintage was another two-horse race – but once again the favourite failed. The BAFTA and Golden Globe gong went to Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri whilst the DGA and PGA went for Guillermo del Toro’s Shape of Water and it was the sci-fi love story that won out.
BAFTA – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Golden Globe – Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
DGA – Shape of Water
PGA – Shape of Water
The Bookmakers said – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 6/4, Shape of Water 19/10, Get Out 13/2, Lady Bird 33/1
And the Oscar went to…Shape of Water
2019
Another year and another favourite fails. Netflix’s Roma from director with Alfonso Cuaron was the short price favourite to win ahead of Green Book – the 1960’s based drama around black pianist Donald Shirley. Roma was the pick of the BAFTAs and the DGA, but Green Book got the nod off the PGA and Golden Globe’s – who also honoured Bohemian Rhapsody.
BAFTA – Roma
Golden Globe – Green Book/Bohemian Rhapsody
DGA – Roma
PGA – Green Book
The Bookmakers said – Roma 2/7, Green Book 9/2, The Favourite 10/1, Bohemian Rhapsody 33/1
And the Oscar went to…Green Book
2020
1917 has dominated awards season and is the first film since 2013 to win all four of the major awards, when Argo triumphed. Korean film Parasite and Martin Scorcese’s Netflix financed Irishman were both tipped to do well, but Sam Mendes’s World One drama 1917 is odds-on to win.
BAFTA – 1917
Golden Globe – 1917
DGA – 1917
PGA – 1917
Best Picture odds: 1917 1/3, Parasite 4, Once Upon A Time in Hollywood 7/1, Joker 11/1, The Irishman 66/1
*Odds correct at time of publishing
Spokesman Peter Watton is available for further comment or one-on-one interviews on this subject or anything connected with a betting market – for more information please contact [email protected] o
